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Research
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Promoting accessory dwelling units (ADUs), small residential backyard units, is one way that state and local governments have attempted to boost housing supply amid rising housing costs. However, homeowners worry about the impact on property values due to increased population and density. This paper studies the effect of ADU development on neighboring property values using an instrumental variable approach. I find that a 0.5 percentage point increase (the mean ADU concentration over the sample period of 2013–2021) in ADU density leads to a 3% decrease in nearby property prices. The negative spillover effects remain consistent within a 300-meter radius, after which they become statistically insignificant. The results are robust across alternative specifications and samples and the adverse effects of ADUs are more pronounced for properties with smaller lot sizes and those in low- and middle-rent neighborhoods. I provide evidence that ADU growth contributes to neighborhood externalities, including increased parking citations, domestic violence reports, illegal dumping, and neighborhood service requests, while showing no significant effects on overall or property crime.
Science aspires to be cumulative. Reproducibility efforts strengthen science by testing the reliability of published findings, promoting self-correction, and informing policy-making. Computational reproductions, whereby independent researchers reproduce the results of published studies, are an essential diagnostic tool. Such efforts should have greater visibility. However, little social science reproduction and robustness has been conducted at scale. Here we reproduced original analyses and conducted robustness checks of 110 articles that were published in leading economics and political science journals with mandatory data and code sharing policies. We found that more than 85% of published claims were computationally reproducible. In robustness checks, our reanalyses showed that 72% of statistically significant estimates remain significant and in the same direction, and the median reproduced effect size is nearly the same as the originally published effect size (that is, 99% of the published effect size). Additionally, 6 independent research teams examined 12 pre-specified hypotheses about determinants of robustness. Research teams with more experience found lower levels of robustness, and robustness did not correlate with author characteristics or data availability.
Working Papers
Housing affordability is a pressing challenge in the United States, with rising costs placing significant financial strain on communities. In response, local governments are exploring policies to enhance residential development and increase housing supply. A common strategy is upzoning, which involves relaxing land use regulations to facilitate denser housing. Using property characteristics and consumer trace data, I show that easing zoning requirements increases housing supply, as measured by the number of units, without altering the size of units. I also find that upzoning leads to higher house prices. The zoning change also triggers demographic shifts, including a greater share of in-migrant households that are non-Hispanic White. On the other hand, out-migration does not vary by race or ethnicity. I also find that in-migrants do not come from higher-income neighborhoods, but out-migrants tend to move to tracts with slightly higher median incomes. Additionally, I assess spillover effects within a 2-mile radius of the treated zones, revealing delayed increases in housing units, and house prices within a mile of Transit Oriented Communities (TOC) areas. These findings are robust to a triple difference-in-differences specification, confirming that the observed changes are attributable to the TOC program rather than confounding factors.
(with Wyatt Clarke and Matthew Freedman) R&R at Journal of Urban Economics
This paper examines the private response to tax incentives for residential investment as well as the nature and scope of housing externalities by exploiting the lottery structure of Missouri's Neighborhood Preservation Act (NPA). The NPA offers tax credits to homeowners and developers who improve or expand the owner-occupied housing stock in low-income areas. Taking advantage of the random assignment of NPA tax credits together with detailed property-level data, we find that the program increases construction activity over and above that which would have occurred in its absence. NPA-induced investments also translate into positive albeit imprecisely measured changes in property values. However, we find no evidence that NPA-subsidized investment affects neighbors' investment behavior or nearby property values. The results highlight the limits of housing improvement policies in spurring broad-based neighborhood change where it would not happen otherwise.
Work in Progress
Work in Progress
Do State ADU Laws Promote Multigenerational Living? Evidence from California
Do State ADU Laws Promote Multigenerational Living? Evidence from California
Who governs infill? Multilayered governance and the uneven expansion of housing opportunities
Who governs infill? Multilayered governance and the uneven expansion of housing opportunities
Where Do Accessory Dwelling Units Expand Housing Supply? Evidence from California
Where Do Accessory Dwelling Units Expand Housing Supply? Evidence from California
Spatial and Network Perspectives on Employment Multipliers and Urban Development: The Case of Zonas Francas
(with Santiago Campos-Rodríguez)
Policy Research and Report
Policy Research and Report
(with Nicholas J. Marantz, Huixin Zheng, Jae Hong Kim, Doug Houston, Moira O’Neill, Eric Biber, Youjin B. Kim)
This report identifies transportation-efficient, healthy, high-opportunity areas for housing development. Adding housing in these areas could promote housing affordability and reduce greenhouse gas emissions, while contributing to enhanced socioeconomic mobility and more equitable development patterns. The development potential in the identified areas, according to data provided by regional planning organizations and local jurisdictions, substantially exceeds the number of existing units, but the layering of regulatory restrictions may impede development at the putatively planned densities. This report therefore identifies enhanced data collection procedures and policy levers to promote development in the identified areas. The policy levers include regulatory changes to expedite the approval of infill housing, to increase the financial feasibility of infill housing, and to more effectively target regulatory requirements related to the provision of below-market-rate housing units.
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